PERBANDINGAN HASIL KEKERINGAN METODE THEORY OF RUN DENGAN DECILE INDEX DI DAS GENDING KABUPATEN PROBOLINGGO

Nadia Sari Nastiti, Donny Harisuseno

Abstract


ABSTRAK: Kekeringan sering terjadi di Kabupaten Probolinggo. Sejak bulan Mei hingga Juni 2017 terdapat 6 desa yang berada pada 4 kecamatan di Kabupaten Probolinggo dikategorikan beresiko kekeringan tinggi. Oleh  sebab itu, Perlu adanya peta sebaran kekeringan yang dapat digunakan sebagai masukan untuk menangani permasalahan kepada instansi terkait. Perhitungan analisis kekeringan menggunakan dua metode yaitu metode Theory of Run dan Decile Index. Hasil perhitungan kemudian dibandingan dengan pola data SOI. Hasil perhitungan kekeringan yang paling sesuai dengan pola data SOI kemudian dibuat peta sebaran kekeringannya. Hasil analisis menggunakan metode Theory of Run, durasi kekeringan terpanjang terjadi selama 14 bulan dan jumlah kekeringan terbesar adalah 2180,82 mm. Hasil kekeringan menggunakan metode Decile Index meunjukkan persentase terbesar untuk kategori amat sangat kering yaitu sebesar 75%. Metode Decile Index lebih sesuai dengan status El Nino dari pada metode Theory of Run dengan nilai kesesuaian sebesar 51,5%. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bulan Agustus dan September merupakan bulan yang paling sering mengalami kekeringan. 24 desa di DAS Gending mengalami kekeringan dengan kategori amat sangat kering.

Kata kunci: kekeringan, Theory of Run, Decile Index, SOI, sebaran kekeringan.

 

ABSTRACT: Drought is a condition that is common in Probolinggo regency. From May to June 2017 there are 6 villages located in 4 sub-districts in Probolinggo regency categorized as high risk of drought. Therefore, there should have been map of drought that can be used as recommendation to handle problems for the related institutions. The calculation of drought analysis used two methods that are Theory of Run and Decile Index. The drought result then will be compared with SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) data. The drought index that has been calculated then created on drought partial map. The result of the analysis using Theory of Run method, the longest duration of drought occurred for 14 months and the biggest number of drought was 2180.82 mm. Meanwhile, the result of the drought using the Decile Index method showed the greatest percentage for the very dry category that is equal to 75%. Decile Index method were more better suited to the status of El Nino than Theory of Run method with the value of conformity of 51.5%. The result of partial map showed that August and September are the mounth that often find worst drought. At least, there are 24 villages that had been around drouht with the very dry category in every year.

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